WEATHER

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2/04/2020

Wet March in the north; more rain for April

March was wetter than average for much of northern and central Victoria, drier than average in parts of the south and east, and close to average elsewhere. Parts of the northeast had rainfall in the wettest 10 per cent of years on record.

At the beginning of the month, a low-pressure trough which extended to the tropics, brought moisture from ex-tropical cyclone Esther and widespread rainfall across Victoria (and northern and eastern Australia). The event delivered an early autumn break for parts of south-eastern Australia, and many Victorian sites their highest March daily rainfall on record, including Heathcote and Tangambalanga NE Diary, which both have more than 100 years of measurements. The State Emergency Service received more than 300 calls, mostly related to flooding and building damage.

At the end of the month, a cold front and associated trough brought widespread rainfall to the State with the higher totals, generally between 5 and 15 mm, over the centre and northeast. By the end of March most of NSW and northeast and central Victoria had had an autumn break (about an inch of rain within a few days). This year's autumn break arrived a couple of weeks earlier than usual for northeast Victoria and more than a month earlier than usual in parts of the north and northwest where it has occurred.

March days were cooler than average across most of the east and parts of the northwest, while overnight temperatures were close to average.

Looking ahead, the latest outlook for April shows above average rainfall is likely across most of the State (and the country). May however, does not show any widespread, strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month for Victoria.

The three-month outlook for April to June shows above average rainfall is favoured for Victoria. But April's contribution is likely to be responsible for much of the wet signal. The more neutral outlook for May is consistent with neutral forecasts for our major rainfall drivers, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, for the coming months.

Cooler than average days are likely to continue during April but the outlook for May isn't showing a tendency toward cooler, or warmer than average maximum temperatures.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in northern and central Victoria with chances reducing to around 50 per cent in the south.

Recent Weather Updates

  • Wet March in the north; more rain for April | 2/04/2020  

    March was wetter than average for much of northern and central Victoria, drier than average in parts of the south and east, and close to average elsewhere.


  • Oceans impact long-range outlook | 27/03/2020  

    Australia's major climate drivers—the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—are likely to remain neutral through winter.


  • Soil moisture improves | 19/03/2020  

    Recent rainfall has seen increases in soil moisture for much of south-eastern Australia.




  • A cool end to a warm summer | 6/03/2020  

    Days and nights were warmer than average this summer across much of Victoria, especially in the northeast.