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Autumn outlook

Grazing conditions in the Mallee and Wimmera are likely to start to improve following the recent rain. But farmers will be looking for follow-up falls soon. The outlook for Victoria in autumn shows no strong push towards a wetter or direr than average season ahead. The one-month outlook for March has slightly increased chances of above average rainfall for much of the State but April is mostly neutral.

In a typical autumn, northwest Victoria receives about 50 mm, while parts of the south, far east, and elevated areas record more than 200 mm.

The neutral rainfall outlook for autumn across Victoria, and indeed across much of Australia, is because our major climate drivers, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are likely to remain neutral through autumn.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the non-seasonal northward or southward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, is likely to remain neutral in the coming fortnight. We're moving into the time of year when SAM has its minimum influence on temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Australia.

The 50:50 rainfall outlook is also consistent with the Bureau of Meteorology's climate model forecast for close to normal mean sea level pressure over Victoria during autumn. The model is also showing slightly more cloud over the State in March but no large shift from average for the season overall.

Collectively, water storages on the east and south coast of Victoria are at a similar level to this time last year. Water storages inland, in the Murray-Darling Basin have declined. Overall, Victorian water storage is 42.2% full, 7.9% lower than this time last year. Accessible water volumes across the whole Murray-Darling Basin are currently 31.2%, 8.0% lower than this time last year. However, soil moisture levels are generally higher than this time last year across most of the state.

Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly warmer than usual in the coming months. Both April and autumn overall are likely to have warmer days than average in parts, but most of the State has a 50:50 outlook for March. Minimum temperatures too are likely to be warmer than average in April and autumn and warmer than average in the south and east during March.

Recent Weather Updates

  • Autumn outlook | 21/02/2020  

    Grazing conditions in the Mallee and Wimmera are likely to start to improve following the recent rain. But farmers will be looking for follow-up falls soon.

  • Wet in the west | 14/02/2020  

    Most of Victoria has already surpassed its February rainfall average, with some Western parts receiving more than three times their normal monthly rainfall.

  • A cool start, but warm end, for a wet January 2020 | 7/02/2020  

    Overall, Victoria in January was wetter than average, largely due to record rainfall in parts to 9am on the 21 st and 23 rd . Daytime temperatures were warmer than average across the State.

  • The heat returns | 30/01/2020  

    After good rainfall and milder temperatures last week, the heat returns this week with a heatwave warning for parts of southern Australia including Victoria.

  • A return to normal rainfall | 24/01/2020  

    Welcome rainfall in the past week raised month-to-date totals above January averages in parts of northern, central and eastern Victoria.