WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

For up-to-the-minute weather reporting and forecasting, please go to www.bom.gov.au  or download the BOM weather app.

12/07/2019

Drier, warmer August-October likely

The outlook for August–October, issued Thursday 11 July, shows overall a drier and warmer than average three-months ahead is likely. Below average rainfall is most likely in the southwest where there is a greater than 70% chance. Chances reduce to the north and east; parts of the Mallee and Gippsland have roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. The one-month outlook for August shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month for most of Victoria.

With more cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increased risk of frost in susceptible areas.

August–October days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across the State—chances are greatest in the northeast.


The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral for the remainder of winter and spring.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast for the remainder of winter and spring. A positive IOD typically brings drier and warmer than average weather to Victoria during winter-spring. The positive IOD is likely to be our dominant climate driver during the next three months.

In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Victorian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

See the complete Climate Outlooks and don't forget to check out the outlook video.

Recent Weather Updates

  • Drier, warmer August-October likely | 12/07/2019  

    The outlook for August–October, issued Thursday 11 July, shows overall a drier and warmer than average three-months ahead is likely.
  • Dry outlook weakens in parts | 27/06/2019  

    The updated July–September climate outlook, released Thursday 27 June, shows a weaker dry pattern compared with the previous outlook.
  • July–Sept. Outlook: Dry & Warm Likely | 13/06/2019  

    The July to September outlook, issued Thursday 13 June, shows Victoria is likely to be drier and warmer than average over the coming three months.
  • Join us for a winter webinar | 16/05/2019  

    You’re invited to attend a BOM Webinar delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology’s weather, water, climate and ocean experts.