Drier, warmer August-October likely
The outlook for August–October, issued Thursday 11 July, shows overall a drier and warmer than
average three-months ahead is likely. Below average rainfall is most likely in the southwest where
there is a greater than 70% chance. Chances reduce to the north and east; parts of the Mallee and
Gippsland have roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. The one-month outlook
for August shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month for most of Victoria.
With more cloud-free days and nights expected, there is an increased risk of frost in susceptible areas.
August–October days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across the State—chances are greatest in the northeast.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral for the remainder of winter and spring.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast for the remainder of winter and spring. A positive IOD typically brings drier and warmer than average weather to Victoria during winter-spring. The positive IOD is likely to be our dominant climate driver during the next three months.
In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Victorian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
See the complete Climate Outlooks and don't forget to check out the outlook video.