July is looking drier than average
The remainder of July is likely to be drier than average for most of the State. While the August
outlook is showing a wet signal for parts of the country, it doesn't extend to much of Victoria. But in
September, northern and eastern Victoria share an increased chance of above average rainfall along
with much of eastern Australia.
One of the reasons for the wet outlook for parts of the country is an increased chance of La Niña
developing in the coming months. There's about a 50 per cent chance La Niña could occur, roughly
double the normal likelihood. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall over
much of Australia.
It wouldn't be winter without some frozen mornings and chilly days but overall, temperatures are
likely to be warmer than average in the months ahead. The outlook for both days and nights is
warmer than average during August and September.
Rainfall for the first half of 2020 was in the wettest 10 per cent of records for parts of central and
north-eastern Victoria. Elsewhere it was mostly average to above average except for parts of East
Gippsland where it has been a drier than usual first six months of the year. It is a contrast with 2019,
2018 and 2017 when parts of the State had rainfall in the driest 10 per cent of records for January to
Root zone soil moisture is still above average across much of central Victoria and the North East
following the wet start to the year overall. But a drier than usual June means we are starting to see
areas of below average soil moisture expand in the northwest. And spare a thought for East
Gippsland were some places haven't seen above average soil moisture since June 2019.