WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The weather page was updated on 14 September, however for up-to-the-minute weather reporting and forecasting, please go to www.bom.gov.au  or download the BOM weather app.

Winter 2018: dry in the north and east

Winter rainfall was below average across the north and east of the State but average to above average in the southwest. July was particularly dry across the north and east.



Days were warmer than average for much of the State except the southwest and northeast where they were closer to average. Average maximum temperatures in July were more than 1.0 °C warmer than usual for much of the State.


Nights were cooler than average in much of the north but warmer than average in East Gippsland. Elsewhere, minimum temperatures where close to average. Clear skies and cold, dry air delivered several very cold mornings across Victoria towards the end of the season.



Many sites in Victoria experienced their windiest August for at least ten years. Much of southern Victoria had their windiest July for at least ten years.

See the Seasonal Climate Summary for Victoria for more details.

A warm, dry end to 2018

The first look outlook for October to December, released 13 September, shows below average rainfall is likely for most of Victoria over the coming three months. However, while the outlook for October favours drier conditions in most parts, the outlook for November is neutral (roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month) for most of the State. Hence the three-month outlook is likely a result of below average rainfall at the start of the forecast period.

Days are likely to be warmer than average this October to December. The highest chances (>80%) for warmer than normal maximum temperatures are in north and northwest, reducing to the south.


Nights too are likely to be warmer than average for October to December. The highest chances (>80%) for warmer than normal minimum temperatures are in north and northeast, reducing to the south and west.

The dry and warm outlook for October to December is being influenced by two of our major climate drivers; the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Recent observations and climate model predictions mean there is about a 50% chance of El Niño developing this spring (around double the normal chance). Around one third of models show the potential for a positive IOD this spring. Both El Niño and a positive IOD during spring typically mean below average rainfall for Victoria. If El Niño and a positive IOD coincide, rainfall deficiencies can be exacerbated.

See the Bureau's Climate Outlooks for more details, and don't forget to check out the Climate and Water Outlook video.



Check out the ENSO Wrap-Up for details on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans

Long-range forecasts now more accurate

The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecasts, called Climate Outlooks, are now powered by a new state of the art, high-definition model.

The improved model, known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator—Seasonal (ACCESS-S) runs on the Bureau's supercomputer. Since its installation in 2016, the Bureau has been progressively upgrading forecasting and climate outlook capability.

The switch to a new model means the Bureau's Climate Outlooks of rainfall and temperature are now more accurate and provide more localised information for sites across the country. This provides Australian industry and communities with improved tools to plan for the challenges posed by our harsh climate.

Significantly more data can now be processed, so the outlooks have higher resolution, jumping from a 250 km grid to a 60 km grid. This means the Bureau can better model the atmosphere, and Australia's land features. For example, the new model better represents the Great Dividing Range—which plays a key role in influencing rainfall variability in eastern Australia. The difference in climate between coastal Sydney, the Blue Mountains, and inland Bathurst is captured by the new model (the previous model treated that entire region in the same way). This means better forecasts for geographically complex regions. With seasonal forecasting playing a big role for sectors such as agriculture, improvements to our Climate Outlooks service can have many flow-on benefits to communities across Australia.

But it's not just the climate modelling of our land areas that is improving—ocean forecasting has also received a boost, moving from a 150 km grid to a 25 km grid. This finer detail means that ocean currents, such as the East Australian Current, are better represented. The model will provide greater insight into the likelihood of coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, as well as opening up potential for future marine applications. This also means that climate drivers, such as El Niño and La Niña, can be forecast with more accuracy.

Visit the Bureau’s website to view the latest outlook or subscribe now to receive climate outlooks direct via email.