A warm, dry end to 2018
The first look outlook for October to December, released 13 September, shows below average rainfall is likely for most of Victoria over the coming three months. However, while the outlook for October favours drier conditions in most parts, the outlook for November is neutral (roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month) for most of the State. Hence the three-month outlook is likely a result of below average rainfall at the start of the forecast period.
Days are likely to be warmer than average this October to December. The highest chances (>80%) for warmer than normal maximum temperatures are in north and northwest, reducing to the south.
Nights too are likely to be warmer than average for October to December. The highest chances (>80%) for warmer than normal minimum temperatures are in north and northeast, reducing to the south and west.
The dry and warm outlook for October to December is being influenced by two of our major climate drivers; the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Recent observations and climate model predictions mean there is about a 50% chance of El Niño developing this spring (around double the normal chance). Around one third of models show the potential for a positive IOD this spring. Both El Niño and a positive IOD during spring typically mean below average rainfall for Victoria. If El Niño and a positive IOD coincide, rainfall deficiencies can be exacerbated.
See the Bureau's Climate Outlooks for more details, and don't forget to check out the Climate and Water Outlook video.