WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

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11/10/2019

More hope for rain after Spring

October was forecast to be drier than average, and so far, it has been in most parts. November too is likely to be drier than usual across Victoria. Much of the recent and forecast dry signal for Victoria is coming from the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The positive IOD is forecast to break down in early summer. Once this occurs, there are prospects for more neutral rainfall outlooks.

Typically, during a positive IOD the easterly trade winds strengthen along the equator, pushing warm water towards Africa. This change in the winds also encourages cool water to rise up from the deep ocean in the east. This sets up a temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean with cooler than normal water in the east near Indonesia, and warmer than normal water in the west.

Generally, this means there is less moisture than normal in the atmosphere to the northwest of Australia. This changes the path of weather systems coming from Australia's west, often resulting in less rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring.

One of our other major climate drivers, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is neutral. And international climate models forecast neutral ENSO for the remainder of 2019, and into early 2020. When ENSO is neutral, it has little effect on Victorian rainfall and temperature patterns.

The current outlooks for October and November both show a low chance of above average rainfall for the State. However, the chance of low rainfall reduces when we compare the 3-month outlooks for October–December and the outlook for November–January. This suggests that as the IOD breaks down in December, the likelihood of above average rainfall will start to rise.




The 3-month temperature outlooks show days will likely remain warmer than average, except in the south of the state where chances gradually reduce to around 50%. At the same time, there is no strong push towards warmer or cooler than average nights for western and southern Victoria.

See the Bureau's rainfall and temperature outlooks for the weeks, months and seasons ahead.

Recent Weather Updates

  • More hope for rain after Spring | 11/10/2019  

    October was forecast to be drier than average, and so far, it has been in most parts. November too is likely to be drier than usual across Victoria.
  • Rainfall, recharge and runoff | 3/10/2019  

    Overall, Victoria was drier than average in September 2019. Western parts of the Wimmera and Southwest district, along with the East Central district recorded near average monthly totals.
  • Above normal fire potential for the east | 19/09/2019  

    Eastern Victoria faces above normal fire potential for the 2019/20 fire season. It's the same story along most of Australia's east coast from Hobart to almost Townsville.
  • Don't sweat the small stuff | 12/09/2019  

    ENSO this, IOD that, SAM what? Long-range weather forecasting is complicated. Factoring in all of the influences on the months and season ahead can get confusing.