WEATHER

Welcome to our weather page, with information kindly provided by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The weather page was updated on 13 July, however for up-to-the-minute weather reporting and forecasting, please go to www.bom.gov.au  or download the BOM weather app.





August–October: dry and warm

13/7/2018
The first look August to October Climate Outlooks, issued 12 July, shows Victoria is likely to have a drier and warmer than average three months ahead.

The strongest chances (>75%) for a drier than average three months are in the northeast, easing to the southwest and southeast. The Bureau's climate model suggests that the westerly winds (and associated rain systems) that typically flow along the south of Australia at this time of year are likely to be weaker than average. Current cooler than average waters to the northwest of Australia may also be influencing the flow of moisture into southeast Australia.


Both days and nights have a high chance (>80%) of being warmer than average in the east, with chances easing to the west. In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.



See the Climate outlooks for more details, including the Outlook video, and subscribe to our products to stay up to date.

El Niño WATCH activated; 50% chance of El Niño in spring 2018

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, however, recent model forecasts and observations show an increased likelihood of El Niño this spring. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means that the chances of El Niño forming in 2018 is approximately 50%.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have been slowly warming since April. Waters beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific are now warmer than average—a common precursor to El Niño. Five of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that ocean temperatures are likely to reach El Niño thresholds in spring, while a sixth model falls just short. El Niño during spring often means below average rainfall for Victoria, while a neutral ENSO phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña) has little effect on rainfall.

See the ENSO Wrap-Up for more details.

July–September: Dry in the north, warm across Victoria

29/6/2018
The latest July–September Climate outlooks, issued Thursday 28 June, shows a drier than average three months is likely in the north. Locations along the Murray, from Tintaldra to Murrabit, have a greater than 3 in 4 chance of a drier three months. In the southwest and southeast there is roughly equal chances of below or above average rainfall.

Both days and nights are likely to be warmer than average in Victorian from July–September, with the strongest chances (greater than 80%) in the east. The Bureau's climate model is forecasting increased chances that pressure will be higher than average to the south of Australia during the July to September period. This may weaken westerlies and result in fewer cold fronts extending into southeast Australia.



See the Climate outlooks for more details, including the Outlook video, and subscribe to our products to stay up to date.

Laverton radar upgrade

The Bureau of Meteorology is refurbishing key components of the Laverton Radar in early April, to complete a mid-life upgrade that will extend the life of the radar by another 10 years. For current weather and three-hour forecasts go to MetEye . The nearby Broadmeadows Radar will be available and should be used in combination with the Bureau's Satellite Viewer cloud and lightning images. We expect to have the radar back on line mid-April.