Springtime Snow Before a Wet October

A series of cold fronts are crossing Victoria this week bringing gusty winds, showers and some snow to the Alps. The most rainfall is forecast for Friday, and southern and mountain regions are favoured to record the highest total precipitation. The wet and windy conditions saw the Bureau of Meteorology issue a Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds, and a Warning to Sheep Graziers. Check out the Bureau's website for any current warnings. June to October typically has higher average wind speeds across the state compared to other months.

The long-range outlook is showing increased chances of a wet end to 2020. October to December is likely to be wetter than average across the eastern two-thirds of Australia, with chances above 80% for much of the south-east including northern and western Victoria. But of those three months, October is showing the strongest chances of above average rainfall.

 

October to December rainfall outlook

The tropical Indian and Pacific oceans are steering us towards the wetter conditions. An increased chance of La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, or both, developing in the coming weeks is pushing us towards at least a couple of months of above average rainfall to round out the year.

Maximum temperatures for October to December are likely to be warmer than average along the coast, with no strong push either way for the rest of the state. Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than average across Victoria, and most of Australia.

This week's rainfall will be welcome in most parts. Root zone soil moisture that was average or better from February to June for much of Victoria is now average to below average for most of the state and very much below average at elevated parts of the east. The drier soils follow a dry June, July and September to date (and a mostly average May and August).

Water storage levels across Victoria continued to rise over the past month. Melbourne water storage is 77.0% full, having risen 10.7% over the past year. Murray–Darling Basin water storages are 55.5% full, up 15.4% on this time last year. And storages in the South East Coast drainage division are 41.4% full compared to 36.2% for the same time last year.

Recent Weather Updates



  • A wet start to the week | 27/11/2020  

    Thunderstorms affected most of Victoria on Sunday, with isolated severe thunderstorms about the south and west, including the northern suburbs of Melbourne.


  • State of the Climate 2020 | 20/11/2020  

    The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO released the latest State of the Climate report last week. The report draws on current climate research, encompassing observations, analyses and projections to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term chan


  • La Niña likely to last all summer | 13/11/2020  

    Parts of Victoria recorded some rainfall this week but the second half of November is looking drier than average for parts of the south and south-east.


  • Wet weather and warm nights likely to continue | 6/11/2020  

    October rainfall was higher than average for much of Victoria, with parts of the east and some pockets of the west very much wetter than average (in the wettest 10% of records).