More Rain Likely

Northerly winds and cloudy skies delivered some unseasonably warm weather last weekend. Maximum temperatures were more than 12 °C warmer than average in parts of the north-west on the 4th. Walpeup Research only dropped down to 21.7 °C on the 4th, it's warmest minimum temperature on record so early in the month.

This week brought a return to cooler conditions as an inland low directed rain and showers across Victoria.

Most of Victoria is likely to be wetter than average for the remainder of October except there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions for parts of the south-west. Above average rainfall is expected over the next four months across most of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland. The latest outlook shows parts of central, northern and western Victoria have high chances (above 80%) of a wetter than usual November to January.

Rainfall outlook for November to January

It is a mostly neutral outlook (no strong push wither way) for maximum temperatures for the rest of October but for November to January most of the state is likely to have warmer than average days. And there are high chances (above 80%) that overnight temperatures will be warmer than average this November to January for all of Victoria and most of Australia.

The climate drivers in the oceans around Australia play an important role in shaping our seasonal weather. A La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific and it is likely to last until at least January 2021. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been bouncing around the negative IOD threshold for a couple of months. Some computer models anticipate the IOD will be negative into November. Both La Niña and negative IOD typically increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring, and La Niña also usually means above average summer rainfall across eastern Australia.

If it stays wet, annual rainfall across Victoria will be average to above average this year, and 2020 will have provided some recovery after a very dry 2019 and 2018 (2017 also was drier than average across Gippsland).

Recent Weather Updates

  • A wet start to the week | 27/11/2020  

    Thunderstorms affected most of Victoria on Sunday, with isolated severe thunderstorms about the south and west, including the northern suburbs of Melbourne.

  • State of the Climate 2020 | 20/11/2020  

    The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO released the latest State of the Climate report last week. The report draws on current climate research, encompassing observations, analyses and projections to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term chan

  • La Niña likely to last all summer | 13/11/2020  

    Parts of Victoria recorded some rainfall this week but the second half of November is looking drier than average for parts of the south and south-east.

  • Wet weather and warm nights likely to continue | 6/11/2020  

    October rainfall was higher than average for much of Victoria, with parts of the east and some pockets of the west very much wetter than average (in the wettest 10% of records).