Northerly winds and cloudy skies delivered some unseasonably warm weather last weekend. Maximum temperatures were more than 12 °C warmer than average in parts of the north-west on the 4th. Walpeup Research only dropped down to 21.7 °C on the 4th, it's warmest minimum temperature on record so early in the month.
This week brought a return to cooler conditions as an inland low directed rain and showers across Victoria.
Most of Victoria is likely to be wetter than average for the remainder of October except there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions for parts of the south-west. Above average rainfall is expected over the next four months across most of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland. The latest outlook shows parts of central, northern and western Victoria have high chances (above 80%) of a wetter than usual November to January.
Rainfall outlook for November to January
It is a mostly neutral outlook (no strong push wither way) for maximum temperatures for the rest of October but for November to January most of the state is likely to have warmer than average days. And there are high chances (above 80%) that overnight temperatures will be warmer than average this November to January for all of Victoria and most of Australia.
The climate drivers in the oceans around Australia play an important role in shaping our seasonal weather. A La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific and it is likely to last until at least January 2021. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been bouncing around the negative IOD threshold for a couple of months. Some computer models anticipate the IOD will be negative into November. Both La Niña and negative IOD typically increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring, and La Niña also usually means above average summer rainfall across eastern Australia.
If it stays wet, annual rainfall across Victoria will be average to above average this year, and 2020 will have provided some recovery after a very dry 2019 and 2018 (2017 also was drier than average across Gippsland).